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2020 United States presidential election in Montana

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Turnout	81.33% (of registered voters)
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 3 0 Popular vote 343,602 244,786 Percentage 56.92% 40.55%
County Results Precinct Results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

Elections in Montana
Federal government Presidential elections 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Presidential primaries Democratic 2000 2004 2008 2016 2020 2024 Republican 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 U.S. Senate elections 1890 1895 1895 sp 1899 1901 1901 sp 1905 1907 1911 1913 1916 1918 1922 1924 1928 1930 1934 1934 sp 1936 1940 1942 1946 1948 1952 1954 1958 1960 1964 1966 1970 1972 1976 1978 1982 1984 1988 1990 1994 1996 2000 2002 2006 2008 2012 2014 2018 2020 2024 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections 1889 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1945 2nd sp 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1969 2nd sp 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017 AL sp 2018 2020 2022 2024
State government General elections 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Gubernatorial elections 1889 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Secretary of State elections 2020 2024 Attorney General elections 2020 2024 State Auditor elections 2020 2024 Senate elections 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 House of Representatives elections 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Ballot measures 1894 Capital referendum 2004 Initiative 96 2012 Referendum 121 2016 Initiative 182 2020 Initiative 190 2022 Referendum 131 2024 Initiative 128
Billings Mayoral elections 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
Missoula Mayoral elections 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027
Great Falls Mayoral elections 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
Bozeman Mayoral elections 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
Helena Mayoral elections 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
v t e

The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump and running mate Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Montana had three electoral votes in the Electoral College for the 2020 election.

Trump won Montana 56.92% to 40.55%, a margin of 16.4%, down from the 20.4% margin he scored four years earlier. Prior to this election, most news organizations considered this a state Trump was very likely to win, or otherwise considered a likely red state. Montana has not been won by a Democrat since 1992, and has only been competitive in two elections since then, namely in 1996 and in 2008.

Despite his loss in the state, Biden was able to flip Blaine County, a bellwether that is home to Fort Belknap Indian Reservation. He also narrowed Trump's margins in 31 other counties, including the counties of Lewis and Clark (Helena, the state capital), and to a lesser extent Roosevelt, which holds most of Fort Peck Reservation. Additionally, Biden even widened Hillary Clinton's margin of victory in every other county that she won in 2016. This is the first time since their creation in 1919 and 1912, respectively, that a Democrat has won a presidential election without carrying Roosevelt or Hill county.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.

Democratic primary

Libertarian nominee

The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

General election

Predictions

Polling

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

Aggregate polls

Polls

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:

Results

By county

•   Democratic — +7.5–10%
•   Democratic — +5–7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5–5%
•   Democratic — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%

•   Democratic — +7.5–10%
•   Democratic — +5–7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5–5%
•   Democratic — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Blaine (largest city: Chinook)

By congressional district

Montana has one at-large district that is the same as the statewide results.

Analysis

Montana, a sparsely-populated state straddling the Mountain and Plains West, has been a red state on the presidential level from 1968 on, voting solidly Republican in the close elections of 1968, 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016. Since 1964, it has voted Democratic only in 1992, and, aside from that, has been competitive only in 1976, 1988, 1996, and 2008. Montana typically votes substantially to the left of its neighbors in the Mountain West (Idaho and Wyoming) and, more recently, of its neighbors in the Plains West as well (North and South Dakota). Nevertheless, Trump was able to carry the state comfortably on Election Day, although his margin was reduced with respect to 2016.

Trump's principal bases of support were in Glacier Country, southwest Montana, central Montana, and southeast Montana, where he carried the population centers of Flathead County (Kalispell), Ravalli County, Cascade County (Great Falls), and Yellowstone County (Billings), in every case with a higher vote share than he received statewide. He also performed strongly in moderate-size, more rural counties in every region of the state, such as Lincoln and Sanders in Glacier Country, Beaverhead, Madison, and Jefferson in the southwest, Stillwater and Carbon in south central Montana, Fergus in central Montana, Custer in the southeast, and Richland, Dawson, and Valley in the Missouri River Country.

However, Biden was able to keep the margin smaller than in neighboring states by breaking 60% in Missoula County, the state's third-largest county and home to the University of Montana, and winning a majority in Gallatin County, the state's second-largest county and home to Montana State University. Gallatin had been a typically Republican county as recently as 2012, when it voted for Romney. He also held Trump to a 4% margin in Lewis and Clark County, the state's sixth-largest county and home to the state capital, Helena; George W. Bush had won this county twice by double digits. Biden also held onto the traditionally Democratic strongholds of heavily unionized Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, although he still fell short of the typical Democratic vote share in those counties; Trump became the first Republican to crack 40% in Silver Bow since 1956, and got the highest vote share of any Republican in Deer Lodge since 1956. In addition, Biden once again carried majority-Native American Glacier County; and furthered his margins in the city of Whitefish, located in heavily-Republican Flathead County.

Biden flipped the swing county of Blaine; Trump flipped no counties.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, 49% of voters favored allowing more drilling and mining for natural resources on Montana's public lands; an overwhelming 87% of them backed Trump.

In addition to Trump's victory in Montana, Republican candidates, riding on his coattails, won three other major statewide races, which were expected to be competitive. Incumbent Senator Steve Daines defeated term-limited Governor Steve Bullock in the Montana Senate race, Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams in the Montana House race, and Republican Representative Greg Gianforte defeated Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney in the governor's race. This marked the first time since 2000 that Montana Republicans have held a trifecta. Montana Republicans also won all five state executive branch seats including the State Auditor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Edison exit polls

See also

• United States presidential elections in Montana
• Presidency of Joe Biden
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. ^ Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Don't recall" with 1%
4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
5. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
6. ^ Includes "Refused"
7. Standard VI response
8. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
9. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
10. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
11. "Someone else" with 2%
12. Hawkins (G) with 0%
13. Hawkins (G) and would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
14. "Refused" with 0%
15. Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
16. "Someone else" with 5%
17. Listed as "other/not sure"
18. "Someone else" with 11.6%; Warren with 5%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 4%; Kasich with 4.4%; Harris with 3.8%; O'Rourke with 3.4%; Booker with 2.4%; Gillibrand with 1% Schultz with 1.2%

Partisan clients

1. Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
2. The House Majority PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
3. AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
4. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.

References

1. "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana SoS. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. "Montana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
5. "2020 Statewide Primary Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
6. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
7. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
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Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Montana

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Montana", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Montana: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Montana". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Montana at Ballotpedia

v t e State and district results of the 2020 United States presidential election
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