2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota: Difference between revisions

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	\| running_mate1 = ]		\| running_mate1 = ]
	\| image2 = Donald Trump 2023 (double cropped).jpg		\| image2 = Donald Trump 2023 (double cropped).jpg
	\| nominee2 = ]		\| nominee2 = ]
	\| home_state2 = ]		\| home_state2 = ]
	\| running_mate2 = ]		\| running_mate2 = ]
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	An upper ] state at the western end of the ], Minnesota has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state; the last Republican to win Minnesota was ] in his ] ]. However, presidential elections in Minnesota have consistently been competitive in the 21st century, with no Democrat carrying the state by double digits with the exception of ] in ], who barely did so by 10.2 percentage points (297,945 votes). Democratic candidate ] won the state in ] by just 1.5 points (44,593 votes), although incumbent President ] expanded the Democratic margin of victory to 7.1 points in ] (233,012 votes). Minnesota is considered to be a Democratic-leaning state in this election.		An upper ] state at the western end of the ], Minnesota has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state; the last Republican to win Minnesota was ] in his ] ]. However, presidential elections in Minnesota have consistently been competitive in the 21st century, with no Democrat carrying the state by double digits with the exception of ] in ], who barely did so by 10.2 percentage points (297,945 votes). Democratic candidate ] won the state in ] by just 1.5 points (44,593 votes), although incumbent President ] expanded the Democratic margin of victory to 7.1 points in ] (233,012 votes). Minnesota is considered to be a Democratic-leaning state in this election.

	Incumbent Democratic president ] was ], and became the Democratic ~~party's~~ presumptive nominee, but ].<ref>{{cite news\|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/joe-biden-announces-2024-reelection-campaign.html\|title=Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision\|last=Kinery \|first=Emma\|date=April 25, 2023\|work=CNBC}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news \|last1=Levine \|first1=Sam \|last2=Gambino \|first2=Lauren \|date=2024-07-22 \|title=Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit \|url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/21/joe-biden-withdraw-running-president \|access-date=2024-07-22 \|work=The Guardian \|language=en-GB \|issn=0261-3077}}</ref> He then endorsed Vice President ], who launched ] the same day.<ref name="BidenPull">{{cite news \|title=Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside \|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/07/21/election-2024-biden-trump-campaign-updates/\|newspaper=The Washington Post \|access-date=July 22, 2024}}</ref> The Republican nominee is former president ].<ref>{{Cite news \|last1=Gold \|first1=Michael \|last2=Nehamas \|first2=Nicholas \|date=March 13, 2024 \|title=Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations \|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/us/politics/trump-republican-nomination.html \|~~access~~-~~date~~=~~July 22, 2024 \|work=The New York Times \|issn=0362-4331 \|archive-date=March 13, 2024~~ \|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240313034919/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/us/politics/trump-republican-nomination.html \|~~url~~-~~status~~=~~live~~}}</ref> Independent candidate ] has qualified for the ballot.<ref>{{Cite news \|last1=McFadden \|first1=Alyce \|last2=Robinson \|first2=Taylor \|last3=Abraham \|first3=Leanne \|last4=O'Brien \|first4=Rebecca Davis \|date=2024-04-29 \|title=Where R.F.K. Jr. and Independent Presidential Candidates Are On the Ballot \|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/presidential-candidates-third-party-independent.html \|access-date=2024-06-25 \|work=The New York Times \|language=en-US \|issn=0362-4331}}</ref>		Incumbent Democratic president ] was ], and became the Democratic presumptive nominee, but ].<ref>{{cite news\|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/joe-biden-announces-2024-reelection-campaign.html\|title=Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision\|last=Kinery \|first=Emma\|date=April 25, 2023\|work=CNBC}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news \|last1=Levine \|first1=Sam \|last2=Gambino \|first2=Lauren \|date=2024-07-22 \|title=Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit \|url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/21/joe-biden-withdraw-running-president \|access-date=2024-07-22 \|work=The Guardian \|language=en-GB \|issn=0261-3077}}</ref> He then endorsed Vice President ], who launched ] the same day.<ref name="BidenPull">{{cite news \|title=Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside \|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/07/21/election-2024-biden-trump-campaign-updates/\|newspaper=The Washington Post \|access-date=July 22, 2024}}</ref> The Republican nominee is former president ].<ref>{{Cite news \|last1=Gold \|first1=Michael \|last2=Nehamas \|first2=Nicholas \|date=March 13, 2024 \|title=Donald J. Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations \|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/us/politics/trump-republican-nomination.html \|url-status=live \|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240313034919/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/us/politics/trump-republican-nomination.html \|archive-date=March 13, 2024 \|access-date=July 22, 2024 \|work=The New York Times \|issn=0362-4331}}</ref> Independent candidate ] has qualified for the ballot.<ref>{{Cite news \|last1=McFadden \|first1=Alyce \|last2=Robinson \|first2=Taylor \|last3=Abraham \|first3=Leanne \|last4=O'Brien \|first4=Rebecca Davis \|date=2024-04-29 \|title=Where R.F.K. Jr. and Independent Presidential Candidates Are On the Ballot \|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/presidential-candidates-third-party-independent.html \|access-date=2024-06-25 \|work=The New York Times \|language=en-US \|issn=0362-4331}}</ref>

	On August 6, Vice President ] selected Minnesota Governor ] as her running mate.<ref>{{cite news \|title=Harris picks Walz for VP \|url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4789021-kamala-harris-vp-tim-walz-minnesota/\|work=The Hill \|access-date=August 6, 2024}}</ref> This decision has been seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the ] as well as among ]. Walz's local popularity, progressive stances, and his record of addressing state-level issues are expected to positively influence voter turnout in Minnesota, potentially securing the state for the Democratic ticket. Following ] and ], Walz would become the third vice president from ] if elected.<ref>{{Cite web \|last=Yilek \|first=Caitlin \|last2=Cordes \|first2=Nancy \|last3=Navarro \|first3=Aaron \|last4=Cavazos \|first4=Nidia \|last5=Woodall \|first5=Hunter \|last6=Jiang \|first6=Weijia \|last7=O'Keefe \|first7=Ed \|date=August 6, 2024 \|title=Kamala Harris picks Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her VP running mate \|url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tim-walz-vp-kamala-harris-running-mate-2024/ \|access-date=August 6, 2024 \|website=CBS News \|language=en-US \|archive-date=August 6, 2024 \|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240806135456/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tim-walz-vp-kamala-harris-running-mate-2024/ \|url-status=live }}</ref>		On August 6, Vice President ] selected Minnesota Governor ] as her running mate.<ref>{{cite news \|title=Harris picks Walz for VP \|url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4789021-kamala-harris-vp-tim-walz-minnesota/\|work=The Hill \|access-date=August 6, 2024}}</ref> This decision has been seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the ] as well as among ]. Walz's local popularity, progressive stances, and his record of addressing state-level issues are expected to positively influence voter turnout in Minnesota, potentially securing the state for the Democratic ticket. Following ] and ], Walz would become the third vice president from ] if elected.<ref>{{Cite web \|last=Yilek \|first=Caitlin \|last2=Cordes \|first2=Nancy \|last3=Navarro \|first3=Aaron \|last4=Cavazos \|first4=Nidia \|last5=Woodall \|first5=Hunter \|last6=Jiang \|first6=Weijia \|last7=O'Keefe \|first7=Ed \|date=August 6, 2024 \|title=Kamala Harris picks Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her VP running mate \|url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tim-walz-vp-kamala-harris-running-mate-2024/ \|access-date=August 6, 2024 \|website=CBS News \|language=en-US \|archive-date=August 6, 2024 \|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240806135456/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tim-walz-vp-kamala-harris-running-mate-2024/ \|url-status=live }}</ref>
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	===Polling===		===Polling===
	'''Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump'''		'''Kamala Harris vs. Donald J. Trump'''
	{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"		{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
	\|- valign=bottom		\|- valign=bottom
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	! Margin<br />of error		! Margin<br />of error
	! class="unsortable" \| Kamala<br />Harris<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}		! class="unsortable" \| Kamala<br />Harris<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Donald<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}		! class="unsortable" \| Donald J.<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br />Undecided		! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br />Undecided
	\|-		\|-
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	<noinclude>		<noinclude>
	<!-- = = = don't edit the line below = = = -->		<!-- = = = don't edit the line below = = = -->
	{{hidden begin\|titlestyle=background:#~~cff~~\|title=Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.\|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}		{{hidden begin\|titlestyle=background:#CFF\|title=Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.\|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
	<!-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = -->		<!-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = -->
	'''Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver'''		'''Kamala Harris vs. Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver'''
	{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"		{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
	\|- valign=bottom		\|- valign=bottom
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	! Margin<br />of error		! Margin<br />of error
	! class="unsortable" \| Kamala<br />Harris<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}		! class="unsortable" \| Kamala<br />Harris<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Donald<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}		! class="unsortable" \| Donald J.<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Robert<br />Kennedy Jr<br />{{nobold\|Independent}}		! class="unsortable" \| Robert<br />Kennedy Jr<br />{{nobold\|Independent}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Cornel<br />West<br />{{nobold\|Independent}}		! class="unsortable" \| Cornel<br />West<br />{{nobold\|Independent}}
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	<!-- = = = don't edit the line below = = = -->		<!-- = = = don't edit the line below = = = -->
	{{hidden begin\|titlestyle=background:#~~cff~~\|title=Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump\|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}		{{hidden begin\|titlestyle=background:#CFF\|title=Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald J. Trump\|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
	<!-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = -->		<!-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = -->
	'''Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump'''		'''Joe Biden vs. Donald J. Trump'''
	{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"		{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
	\|- valign=bottom		\|- valign=bottom
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	! Sample<br />size{{efn\|name=key}}		! Sample<br />size{{efn\|name=key}}
	! Margin<br />of error		! Margin<br />of error
	! class="unsortable" \| Joe<br />Biden<br />{{~~nobold~~\|DFL}}		! class="unsortable" \| Joe<br />Biden<br />{{No bold\|DFL}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Donald<br />Trump<br />{{~~nobold~~\|Republican}}		! class="unsortable" \| Donald J.<br />Trump<br />{{No bold\|Republican}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br />Undecided		! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br />Undecided
	\|-		\|-
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	\|}		\|}

	'''Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein'''		'''Joe Biden vs. Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein'''
	{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"		{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
	\|- valign=bottom		\|- valign=bottom
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	! Margin<br />of error		! Margin<br />of error
	! class="unsortable" \| Joe<br />Biden<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}		! class="unsortable" \| Joe<br />Biden<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Donald<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}		! class="unsortable" \| Donald J.<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Robert F.<br />Kennedy Jr.<br />{{nobold\|Independent}}		! class="unsortable" \| Robert F.<br />Kennedy Jr.<br />{{nobold\|Independent}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Cornel<br />West<br />{{nobold\|Independent}}		! class="unsortable" \| Cornel<br />West<br />{{nobold\|Independent}}
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	\|}		\|}

	'''Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'''		'''Joe Biden vs. Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'''
	{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"		{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
	\|- valign=bottom		\|- valign=bottom
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	! Margin<br />of error		! Margin<br />of error
	! class="unsortable" \| Joe<br />Biden<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}		! class="unsortable" \| Joe<br />Biden<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Donald<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}		! class="unsortable" \| Donald J.<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Robert F.<br />Kennedy Jr.<br />{{nobold\|Independent}}		! class="unsortable" \| Robert F.<br />Kennedy Jr.<br />{{nobold\|Independent}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br />Undecided		! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br />Undecided
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	<!-- = = = don't edit the line below = = = -->		<!-- = = = don't edit the line below = = = -->
	{{hidden begin\|titlestyle=background:#~~cff~~\|title=Hypothetical polling with other candidates\|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}		{{hidden begin\|titlestyle=background:#CFF\|title=Hypothetical polling with other candidates\|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
	<!-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = -->		<!-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = -->
	'''Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump'''		'''Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald J. Trump'''
	{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"		{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
	\|- valign=bottom		\|- valign=bottom
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	! Margin<br />of error		! Margin<br />of error
	! class="unsortable" \| Gretchen<br />Whitmer<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}		! class="unsortable" \| Gretchen<br />Whitmer<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Donald<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}		! class="unsortable" \| Donald J.<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br />Undecided		! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br />Undecided
	\|-		\|-
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	\|}		\|}

	'''Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump'''		'''Josh Shapiro vs. Donald J. Trump'''
	{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"		{\| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;line-height:17px"
	\|- valign=bottom		\|- valign=bottom
Line 468:		Line 468:
	! Margin<br />of error		! Margin<br />of error
	! class="unsortable" \| Josh<br />Shapiro<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}		! class="unsortable" \| Josh<br />Shapiro<br />{{nobold\|DFL}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Donald<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}		! class="unsortable" \| Donald J.<br />Trump<br />{{nobold\|Republican}}
	! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br />Undecided		! class="unsortable" \| Other /<br />Undecided
	\|-		\|-

Revision as of 18:04, 28 August 2024

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota

← 2020

November 5, 2024

2028 →


Nominee	Kamala Harris	Donald J. Trump
Party	Democratic (DFL)	Republican
Home state	California	Florida
Running mate	Tim Walz	JD Vance

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic (DFL)

Elections in Minnesota

General elections

Federal elections

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Minnesota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

An upper Midwestern state at the western end of the Great Lakes, Minnesota has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state; the last Republican to win Minnesota was Richard Nixon in his 1972 49-state landslide. However, presidential elections in Minnesota have consistently been competitive in the 21st century, with no Democrat carrying the state by double digits with the exception of Barack Obama in 2008, who barely did so by 10.2 percentage points (297,945 votes). Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016 by just 1.5 points (44,593 votes), although incumbent President Joe Biden expanded the Democratic margin of victory to 7.1 points in 2020 (233,012 votes). Minnesota is considered to be a Democratic-leaning state in this election.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the Democratic presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21. He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. The Republican nominee is former president Donald J. Trump. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the ballot.

On August 6, Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. This decision has been seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the Midwest as well as among Progressives. Walz's local popularity, progressive stances, and his record of addressing state-level issues are expected to positively influence voter turnout in Minnesota, potentially securing the state for the Democratic ticket. Following Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale, Walz would become the third vice president from Minnesota if elected.

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Minnesota Republican presidential primary

The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Republican primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	232,846	68.94%	27	0	27
Nikki Haley	97,182	28.77%	12	0	12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	4,085	1.21%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,470	0.44%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	1,431	0.42%	0	0	0
Write-ins	720	0.21%	0	0	0
Total:	337,014	100.00%	39	0	39

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary

The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Democratic primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	171,278	70.1%	64		64
Uncommitted	45,914	18.8%	11		11
Dean Phillips	18,960	7.8%
Marianne Williamson	3,459	1.4%
Write-in votes	2,000	0.8%
Jason Palmer	758	0.3%
Cenk Uygur	692	0.3%
Armando Perez-Serrato	372	0.2%
Gabriel Cornejo	323	0.1%
Frankie Lozada	290	0.1%
Eban Cambridge	235	0.1%
Total:	244,281	100%	75	17	92

Legal Marijuana Now primary

Main article: 2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now presidential primary

The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates	Krystal Gabel (withdrew)	759	28.84%	-
Dennis Schuller	459	17.44%	7
Vermin Supreme	397	15.08%	6
Rudy Reyes	365	13.87%	5
Edward Forchion	168	6.38%	2
Willie Nelson (write-in)	19	0.72%	0
Other write-ins	465	17.67%	-
Total:	2,632	100.00%	20
Source:

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report	Likely D	August 27, 2024
Inside Elections	Lean D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	August 6, 2024
The Economist	Likely D	August 23, 2024
CNalysis	Solid D	August 6, 2024
CNN	Lean D	August 25, 2024
538	Likely D	August 23, 2024
RCP	Lean D	July 27, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald J. Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kamala Harris DFL	Donald J. Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Stats&Data	August 15-25, 2024		± 3.0%	51%	47%	2%
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his campaign and endorses Trump.
	August 19–22, 2024	Democratic National Convention
SurveyUSA	July 23–25, 2024	656 (LV)	± 4.4%	50%	40%	10%
Fox News	July 22–24, 2024	1,071 (RV)	± 3.0%	52%	46%	2%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kamala Harris DFL	Donald J. Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	August 12–15, 2024	592 (LV)	–	47%	40%	3%	–	0%	0%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	July 31 – August 3, 2024	538 (LV)	–	46%	41%	3%	–	0%	0%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	July 22–24, 2024	475 (LV)	–	44%	41%	6%	–	1%	0%	8%
Fox News	July 22–24, 2024	1,071 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	41%	7%	1%	1%	–	3%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald J. Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald J. Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Joe Biden DFL	Donald J. Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	45%	10%
Emerson College	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	51%	49%	–
SurveyUSA	June 12–16, 2024	626 (LV)	± 4.3%	47%	41%	12%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	June 9–11, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	47%	8%
SurveyUSA	May 8–11, 2024	625 (LV)	± 4.3%	44%	42%	14%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	April 29 – May 1, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	49%	5%
SurveyUSA	April 3–7, 2024	608 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	42%	14%
SurveyUSA	February 23–28, 2024	1,603 (LV)	± 2.8%	42%	38%	20%
SurveyUSA	January 24–29, 2024	1,594 (LV)	± 2.8%	42%	39%	19%
Embold Research/MinnPost	November 14–17, 2023	1,519 (LV)	± 2.6%	45%	42%	13%
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	477 (LV)	± 4.4%	40%	38%	22%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 6–8, 2023	500 (LV)	–	48%	40%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Joe Biden DFL	Donald J. Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	42%	6%	1%	1%	9%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	June 9–11, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	41%	7%	2%	2%	11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	April 29 – May 1, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	40%	40%	9%	1%	1%	9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Joe Biden DFL	Donald J. Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Mason-Dixon	June 3–5, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	45%	41%	6%	9%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald J. Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Gretchen Whitmer DFL	Donald J. Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Fox News	July 22–24, 2024	1,071 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	46%	5%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald J. Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Josh Shapiro DFL	Donald J. Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Fox News	July 22–24, 2024	1,071 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	45%	6%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Joe Biden DFL	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 6–8, 2023	500 (LV)	–	45%	43%	12%

Notes

^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
"Other" with 4%
With voters who lean towards a given candidate
"Other" with 6%
"Other" with 9%
"Other" with 11%

Partisan clients

^ Poll sponsored by KSTP-TV, WDIO-TV, & KAAL-TV
^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
Poll sponsored by KARE11, Minnesota Public Radio & the Star Tribune

References

Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
"Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald J. Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
McFadden, Alyce; Robinson, Taylor; Abraham, Leanne; O'Brien, Rebecca Davis (April 29, 2024). "Where R.F.K. Jr. and Independent Presidential Candidates Are On the Ballot". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
"Harris picks Walz for VP". The Hill. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
Yilek, Caitlin; Cordes, Nancy; Navarro, Aaron; Cavazos, Nidia; Woodall, Hunter; Jiang, Weijia; O'Keefe, Ed (August 6, 2024). "Kamala Harris picks Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her VP running mate". CBS News. Archived from the original on August 6, 2024. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
"Minnesota Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
"2024 Presidential Primary Results". Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
"2024 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS". OFFICE OF THE MINNESOTA SECRETARY OF STATE STEVE SIMON. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
"Certification of Results of 2024 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota Secretary of State. March 12, 2024.
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"Kamala Harris has put the Democrats back in the race". The Economist. August 23, 2024. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
"2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
"2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. July 27, 2024. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
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"SurveyUSA" (PDF).
^ Balara, Victoria (July 26, 2024). "Fox News Poll: Harris bests Trump by 6 points in Minnesota". Fox News.
"Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 15 August 2024)". August 19, 2024.
"Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (31 July – 3 August 2024)". August 6, 2024.
"Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (22-24 July 2024)". July 25, 2024.
^ Mumford, Camille (June 20, 2024). "June 2024 State Polls: Trump Maintains Edge over Biden". Emerson Polling.
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Radelat, Ana (November 29, 2023). "Poll: Biden, Trump running virtually neck-and-neck in Minnesota". MinnPost.
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"MPR News | Star Tribune | KARE 11 Minnesota Poll: June 2024". APM Research Lab.

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