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2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Josh Stein Mark Robinson Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 3,069,496 2,241,309 Percentage 54.90% 40.08%

County results Precinct resultsStein:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Robinson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election Roy Cooper Democratic Elected Governor Josh Stein Democratic

Elections in North Carolina
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v t e

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein won his first term in office, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson. He will succeed Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who was term-limited.

Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024. Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court justice Michael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurer Dale Folwell.

The race was initially competitive, with Stein holding a narrow lead in part due to Robinson's history of controversial statements. After Robinson was linked to disturbing comments on a pornographic website less than two months before the election, Stein gained a significant polling advantage that held for the remainder of the race. Stein went on to win the election by 14.8%, the largest margin for a gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina since Jim Hunt in 1980.

Stein received more than three million votes, the most of any candidate in the history of statewide elections in North Carolina. He will also be the first Jewish governor of the state. Analysts have credited Stein's large margin of victory with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections. Robinson's 40.08% is the worst showing for any Republican nominee since 1980.

Background

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won.

Incumbent Roy Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.

The Democratic nominee is Josh Stein, the current state attorney general. The Republican nominee is Mark Robinson, the current lieutenant governor.

The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson had become embroiled in numerous controversies since becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a large and consistent lead in polls.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General (2017–present)

Eliminated in primary

• Chrelle Booker, Tryon city councilor (2019–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022
• Gary Foxx, former Princeville police chief
• Michael R. Morgan, former North Carolina Supreme Court justice (2016–2023)
• Marcus Williams, attorney and perennial candidate

Declined

• Sydney Batch, state senator from the 17th district (2021–present) (endorsed Stein)
• Jeff Jackson, U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–present) (endorsed Stein, ran for Attorney General)
• Natalie Murdock, state senator from the 20th district (2020–present) (endorsed Stein)
• Robert T. Reives II, Minority Leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present) from the 54th district (2014–present) (endorsed Stein)

Endorsements

U.S. representatives

• G. K. Butterfield, former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (2004–2022)
• Eva Clayton, former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district (1992–2003)
• Valerie Foushee, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 4th congressional district (2023–present)
• Jeff Jackson, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–present)
• Kathy Manning, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 6th congressional district (2021–present)
• Wiley Nickel, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 13th congressional district (2023–present)
• Deborah Ross, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 2nd congressional district (2021–present)

Statewide officials

• Roy Cooper, Governor of North Carolina (2017–present)
• Jim Hunt, former Governor of North Carolina (1977–1985, 1993–2001)
• Burley Mitchell, former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court (1995–1999)

State legislators

• Robert Reives, minority leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present from the 54th district (2014–present)

Individuals

• Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)

Labor unions

• North Carolina AFL-CIO
• North Carolina Association of Educators

Organizations

• End Citizens United
• NextGen America PAC
• North Carolina League of Conservation Voters
• Reproductive Freedom for All
• Sierra Club

Newspapers

• The Charlotte Observer (Democratic primary only)

Polling

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mark Robinson, Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina (2021–present)

Eliminated in primary

• Dale Folwell, North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–present)
• Bill Graham, attorney and candidate for governor in 2008

Withdrawn

• Jesse Thomas, retired healthcare executive (ran for Secretary of State)
• Mark Walker, former U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 6th congressional district (2015–2021) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House)
• Andy Wells, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020

Declined

• Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present) (endorsed Graham)

Endorsements

Council of State officials

• James G. Martin, former Governor of North Carolina (1985–1993)

Newspapers

• The Charlotte Observer (Republican primary only)

U.S. senators

• Thom Tillis, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2015–present)

Executive branch officials

• Donald Trump, former President of the United States (2017–2021)

U.S. senators

• Ted Budd, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2023–present)

U.S. representatives

• Dan Bishop, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 8th congressional district (2019–present)

State senators

• Phil Berger, President pro tempore of the North Carolina Senate (2011–present) from the 26th district (2001–present)
• Danny Britt, state senator from the 24th district (2017–present)

State representatives

• Neal Jackson, state representative from the 78th district (2023–present)
• Charlie Miller, state representative from the 19th district (2021–present)

Organizations

• National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund
• Conservative Political Action Committee

Newspapers

• Rhino Times

Debate

Polling

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

• Mike Ross, treasurer of the North Carolina Libertarian Party

Eliminated in primary

• Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022

Results

Green Party

Nominee

• Wayne Turner, co-chair of the North Carolina Green Party

Constitution Party

Nominee

• Vinny Smith, treasurer of the North Carolina Constitution Party

General election

Campaign

Stein and Robinson faced each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson has received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson has also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging in Holocaust denial. Robinson has also received criticism from some moderate Republicans, including Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson. On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him.

Calls for Robinson to drop out

On September 19, CNN released a story detailing racist, antisemitic, misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on a pornography website between 2008 and 2012. Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstating slavery. The Carolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week the Trump–Vance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Donald Trump or JD Vance. This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's 2024 election ballots. Before the story was released, Robinson released a video dismissing the report as "tabloid lies" and saying that he would not drop out of the race. His campaign canceled events in Henderson and Norlina planned for the same day. Republican state senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside". Republican North Carolina senator Ted Budd said, "the allegations are concerning but we don't have any facts". That afternoon, Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married. The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20.

Following CNN's September report, most forecasters moved the race to 'Likely Democratic', while Elections Daily moved the race to Safe Democratic.

Predictions

Post-primary endorsements

U.S. executive branch officials

• Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–present)

U.S. representatives

• Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)

Statewide officials

• Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
• Wes Moore, Governor of Maryland (2023–present)
• Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)

State senators

• Jim Davis, former state senator from the 50th district (2011–2021) (Republican)
• Richard Stevens, former state senator from the 17th district (2007–2012) (Republican)

State representatives

• Chuck McGrady, former state representative from the 117th district (2011–2020) (Republican)
• Charles Neely, former state representative from the 61st district (1995–1999) (Republican)
• Garland Pierce, state representative from the 48th district (2005–present)

Organizations

• Giffords
• Human Rights Campaign
• Jewish Democratic Council of America

Individuals

• Martin Luther King III, activist

Statewide officials

• Brian Kemp, Governor of Georgia (2019–present)
• Bill Lee, Governor of Tennessee (2019–present)
• Henry McMaster, Governor of South Carolina (2017–present)
• Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)

Organizations

• Republicans for National Renewal
• Republican Governors Association

Statewide officials

• Dale Folwell, North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–present) (Republican)
• Pat McCrory, former Governor of North Carolina (2013–2017) (Republican)

U.S. senators

• Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present) (Republican)

Fundraising

Polling

Aggregate polls

Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell

Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham

Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Results

•   Democratic—+15-20%
•   Democratic—+10-15%
•   Democratic—+5-10%
•   Democratic—+<5%
•   Republican—+<5%
•   Republican—+5-10%

•   Democratic—+15-20%
•   Democratic—+10-15%
•   Democratic—+5-10%
•   Democratic—+<5%
•   Republican—+<5%
•   Republican—+5-10%
•   Republican—+10-15%

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Alamance (largest city: Burlington)
• Brunswick (largest city: Leland)
• Cabarrus (largest city: Concord)
• Franklin (largest city: Louisburg)
• Henderson (largest city: Hendersonville)
• Jackson (largest city: Cullowhee)
• Lee (largest city: Sanford)
• Transylvania (largest city: Brevard)

Voter demographics

See also

• 2024 North Carolina elections

Notes

1. ^ Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Would not vote" with 4%
3. "Would not vote" with 3%
4. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
5. ^ "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%
6. Ross (L) with 3%
7. "Neither" with 6%; "Other" with 3%
8. Ross (L) with 2%; Smith (C) with 1%
9. "Someone else" with 4%
10. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 3%
11. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
12. "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
13. "Other" with 4%; "None" with 3%
14. Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with <1%
15. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
16. "Refused" with 2%
17. Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) and Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
18. "Someone else" with 5%
19. Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
20. "Wouldn't Vote" and "Refused" with 1%
21. Ross (L) with 3%, Smith (C), "Wouldn't Vote", and "Refused" with 1%
22. "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
23. "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
24. "Someone else" with 4%
25. "Someone else" with 4%; "Would Not Vote" with 1%
26. Ross (L) with 3%; Smith (C), "Other" with 1%
27. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
28. "Neither" with 8%; "Other" with 3%
29. "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 4%
30. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
31. "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
32. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
33. Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G), Smith (C), and "Someone else" with 1%
34. "Someone else" with 2%
35. Ross (L) with 2%
36. Ross (L) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
37. "Refused" with 1%
38. Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
39. "Someone else" with 2%
40. "Someone else" with 3%
41. Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G), Smith (C), "Write-in candidate" each with <1%
42. Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Others" with 1%
43. "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
44. Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
45. Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Undecided Third Party" with 4%
46. Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%
47. Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
48. Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
49. Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
50. Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 1%
51. "Someone else" with 5%
52. Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%
53. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
54. Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
55. "Another party's candidate" with 2%

Partisan clients

1. ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
2. ^ Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
3. Poll sponsored by Nexstar
4. ^ Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
5. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, which supports Republican candidates.
6. ^ Poll sponsored by High Point University
7. ^ Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
8. ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Journal
9. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
10. Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
11. Poll sponsored by Napolitan Institute
12. Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
13. Poll sponsored by AARP
14. Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, which supports Democratic candidates
15. Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
16. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
17. Poll sponsored by the Carolina Journal
18. Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
19. This poll was sponsored by the NC Values Commission
20. This poll was sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform

References

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3. "Democrats Actually Had Quite a Good Night in North Carolina". The Atlantic. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
4. "North Carolina Democrats find electoral success further down the ballot and hope to build on it". Associated Press. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
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9. ^ Cunningham, Eric (September 19, 2024). "Ratings Update: Mark Robinson Scandals Shift North Carolina Gubernatorial Race Shifts to Safe Democratic". Elections Daily. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
10. Langston, Grant (December 7, 2023). "Tryon councilwoman eyes North Carolina governor seat". Tryon Daily Bulletin. Retrieved December 9, 2023.
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12. Schoenbaum, Hannah (September 12, 2023). "Former North Carolina justice enters Democratic primary for governor in 2024". Associated Press News.
13. Wooten, Alan (December 14, 2023). "Democrat Josh Stein, Libertarian Shannon Bray file for North Carolina governor race". Jacksonville Daily News. Retrieved January 19, 2024. Democrats headed to the March 5 gubernatorial primary include Chrelle Booker, Mike Morgan and Marcus Williams in addition to Stein.
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31. ^ High Point University
32. ^ Change Research (D)
33. ^ East Carolina University
34. ^ Meredith College
35. Public Policy Polling (D)
36. ^ Meredith College
37. ^ Meredith College
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55. Capen Analytics
56. Public Policy Polling (D)
57. ^ East Carolina University
58. Cygnal
59. ^ Opinion Diagnostics
60. SurveyUSA
61. The Differentiators (R)
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85. "Remarks by Vice President Harris at a Campaign Event". The White House. Greensboro, North Carolina. September 13, 2024. Retrieved October 8, 2024.
86. ^ "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Josh Stein and Jeff Jackson in North Carolina". Giffords. March 19, 2024. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
87. "Beshear's PAC issues first wave of endorsements". WKU Public Radio | The Public Radio Service of Western Kentucky University. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 27, 2024.
88. Mueller, Julia (June 10, 2024). "Maryland Gov. Wes Moore to stump for Democrat in NC governor's race". The Hill. Retrieved June 10, 2024.
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95. Hallas, Emily (September 23, 2024). "GOP gubernatorial leaders Kemp and Lee pull support of Robinson after allegations". National Review. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
96. Allison, Natalie (September 23, 2024). "Newly unearthed data shows closer links to Robinson and porn, dating sites". Politico. Retrieved September 23, 2024. Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, who chairs the RGA, is pulling his support for Robinson
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107. AtlasIntel
108. AtlasIntel
109. Emerson College
110. NYT/Siena College
111. ^ Morning Consult
112. ActiVote
113. AtlasIntel
114. AtlasIntel
115. East Carolina University
116. Fox News
117. CNN/SSRS
118. SurveyUSA
119. UMass Lowell/YouGov
120. Emerson College
121. Marist College
122. SoCal Strategies (R)
123. SurveyUSA
124. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
125. AtlasIntel
126. Elon University
127. Morning Consult
128. Cygnal (R)
129. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
130. Quinnipiac University
131. Emerson College
132. ActiVote
133. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
134. Quinnipiac University
135. The Washington Post
136. High Point University
137. Emerson College
138. RMG Research
139. East Carolina University
140. AtlasIntel
141. CNN/SSRS
142. BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
143. Fox News
144. Marist College
145. NYT/Siena College
146. Meredith College
147. Victory Insights (R)
148. Emerson College
149. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/
     Impact Research (D)
150. Cygnal (R)
151. Elon University
152. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
153. Quinnipiac University
154. Morning Consult
155. SurveyUSA
156. Florida Atlantic University
157. Emerson College
158. East Carolina University
159. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
160. SoCal Strategies (R)
161. Fox News
162. ActiVote
163. SurveyUSA
164. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
165. NYT/Siena College
166. YouGov (D)
167. Cygnal (R)
168. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
169. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
170. Public Policy Polling (D)
171. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
172. Expedition Strategies
173. Spry Strategies
174. East Carolina University
175. North Star Opinion Research (R)
176. Change Research (D)
177. High Point University
178. Cygnal (R)
179. Emerson College
180. Meeting Street Insights (R)
181. Meredith College
182. Cygnal (R)
183. Quinnipiac University
184. High Point University
185. Marist College
186. SurveyUSA
187. Cygnal (R)
188. Change Research (D)
189. ^ Cygnal (R)
190. Change Research (D)
191. Public Policy Polling (D)
192. Differentiator Data (R)
193. Meeting Street Insights (R) Archived May 20, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
194. "11/05/2024 OFFICIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE". North Carolina State Board of Elections.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Mark Robinson (R) for Governor
• Mike Ross (L) for Governor
• Vinny Smith (C) for Governor
• Josh Stein (D) for Governor
• Wayne Turner (G) for Governor

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