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|Stats&Data<ref>{{Cite web |title=Stats&Data US Election Predictions.pdf |url=https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZUb9NjDnDq1541YXAEQmUC0TaO17r4Oe/view?usp=drive_link |access-date=2024-08-28 |website=Google Docs}}</ref>
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Revision as of 08:39, 28 August 2024

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic (DFL)



Elections in Minnesota
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2012
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Minnesota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

An upper Midwestern state at the western end of the Great Lakes, Minnesota has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state; the last Republican to win Minnesota was Richard Nixon in his 1972 49-state landslide. However, presidential elections in Minnesota have consistently been competitive in the 21st century, with no Democrat carrying the state by double digits with the exception of Barack Obama in 2008, who barely did so by 10.2 percentage points (297,945 votes). Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016 by just 1.5 points (44,593 votes), although incumbent President Joe Biden expanded the Democratic margin of victory to 7.1 points in 2020 (233,012 votes). Minnesota is considered to be a Democratic-leaning state in this election.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the Democratic party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21. He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the ballot.

On August 6, Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. This decision has been seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the Midwest as well as among Progressives. Walz's local popularity, progressive stances, and his record of addressing state-level issues are expected to positively influence voter turnout in Minnesota, potentially securing the state for the Democratic ticket. Following Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale, Walz would become the third vice president from Minnesota if elected.

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Minnesota Republican presidential primary

The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Republican primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 232,846 68.94% 27 0 27
Nikki Haley 97,182 28.77% 12 0 12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 4,085 1.21% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,470 0.44% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,431 0.42% 0 0 0
Write-ins 720 0.21% 0 0 0
Total: 337,014 100.00% 39 0 39


Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary

The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Democratic primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 171,278 70.1% 64 64
Uncommitted 45,914 18.8% 11 11
Dean Phillips 18,960 7.8%
Marianne Williamson 3,459 1.4%
Write-in votes 2,000 0.8%
Jason Palmer 758 0.3%
Cenk Uygur 692 0.3%
Armando Perez-Serrato 372 0.2%
Gabriel Cornejo 323 0.1%
Frankie Lozada 290 0.1%
Eban Cambridge 235 0.1%
Total: 244,281 100% 75 17 92

Legal Marijuana Now primary

Main article: 2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now presidential primary

The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Krystal Gabel (withdrew) 759 28.84% -
Dennis Schuller 459 17.44% 7
Vermin Supreme 397 15.08% 6
Rudy Reyes 365 13.87% 5
Edward Forchion 168 6.38% 2
Willie Nelson (write-in) 19 0.72% 0
Other write-ins 465 17.67% -
Total: 2,632 100.00% 20
Source:

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Likely D August 27, 2024
Inside Elections Lean D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D August 6, 2024
The Economist Likely D August 23, 2024
CNalysis Solid D August 6, 2024
CNN Lean D August 25, 2024
538 Likely D August 23, 2024
RCP Lean D July 27, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
DFL 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Stats&Data August 15-25, 2024 ± 3.0% 51% 47% 2%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his campaign and endorses Trump.
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
SurveyUSA July 23–25, 2024 656 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% 10%
Fox News July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 46% 2%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
DFL 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 12–15, 2024 592 (LV) – 47% 40% 3% – 0% 0% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 31 – August 3, 2024 538 (LV) – 46% 41% 3% – 0% 0% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 22–24, 2024 475 (LV) – 44% 41% 6% – 1% 0% 8%
Fox News July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% 7% 1% 1% – 3%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
DFL 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% 10%
1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 49% –
SurveyUSA June 12–16, 2024 626 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 41% 12%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) June 9–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 8%
SurveyUSA May 8–11, 2024 625 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 42% 14%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) April 29 – May 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 49% 5%
SurveyUSA April 3–7, 2024 608 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 42% 14%
SurveyUSA February 23–28, 2024 1,603 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 38% 20%
SurveyUSA January 24–29, 2024 1,594 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 39% 19%
Embold Research/MinnPost November 14–17, 2023 1,519 (LV) ± 2.6% 45% 42% 13%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 477 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 38% 22%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 6–8, 2023 500 (LV) – 48% 40% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
DFL 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 42% 6% 1% 1% 9%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) June 9–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 41% 7% 2% 2% 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) April 29 – May 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 40% 9% 1% 1% 9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
DFL 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Mason-Dixon June 3–5, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 41% 6% 9%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer
DFL 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Shapiro
DFL 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% 6%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
DFL 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 6–8, 2023 500 (LV) – 45% 43% 12%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Other" with 4%
  3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. "Other" with 6%
  5. "Other" with 9%
  6. "Other" with 11%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by KSTP-TV, WDIO-TV, & KAAL-TV
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by KARE11, Minnesota Public Radio & the Star Tribune

References

  1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  4. "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  5. Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  6. McFadden, Alyce; Robinson, Taylor; Abraham, Leanne; O'Brien, Rebecca Davis (April 29, 2024). "Where R.F.K. Jr. and Independent Presidential Candidates Are On the Ballot". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
  7. "Harris picks Walz for VP". The Hill. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
  8. Yilek, Caitlin; Cordes, Nancy; Navarro, Aaron; Cavazos, Nidia; Woodall, Hunter; Jiang, Weijia; O'Keefe, Ed (August 6, 2024). "Kamala Harris picks Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her VP running mate". CBS News. Archived from the original on August 6, 2024. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
  9. "Minnesota Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  10. "2024 Presidential Primary Results". Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  11. "2024 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS". OFFICE OF THE MINNESOTA SECRETARY OF STATE STEVE SIMON. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  12. "Certification of Results of 2024 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota Secretary of State. March 12, 2024.
  13. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. "Kamala Harris has put the Democrats back in the race". The Economist. August 23, 2024. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  17. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
  18. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  19. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  20. "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. July 27, 2024. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
  21. "Stats&Data US Election Predictions.pdf". Google Docs. Retrieved August 28, 2024.
  22. "SurveyUSA" (PDF).
  23. ^ Balara, Victoria (July 26, 2024). "Fox News Poll: Harris bests Trump by 6 points in Minnesota". Fox News.
  24. "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 15 August 2024)". August 19, 2024.
  25. "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (31 July – 3 August 2024)". August 6, 2024.
  26. "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (22-24 July 2024)". July 25, 2024.
  27. ^ Mumford, Camille (June 20, 2024). "June 2024 State Polls: Trump Maintains Edge over Biden". Emerson Polling.
  28. "SurveyUSA" (PDF).
  29. ^ "McLaughlin & Associates (R)" (PDF).
  30. "SurveyUSA" (PDF).
  31. ^ "x.com".
  32. "SurveyUSA" (PDF).
  33. "SurveyUSA" (PDF).
  34. "Wayback Machine". February 9, 2024. Archived from the original on February 9, 2024.
  35. Radelat, Ana (November 29, 2023). "Poll: Biden, Trump running virtually neck-and-neck in Minnesota". MinnPost.
  36. Mumford, Camille (October 16, 2023). "Minnesota 2024 Poll: Biden Holds Narrow Lead over Trump". Emerson Polling.
  37. ^ "x.com".
  38. "MPR News | Star Tribune | KARE 11 Minnesota Poll: June 2024". APM Research Lab.
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