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2020 United States presidential election in Florida

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Turnout	77.17% (of registered voters) 2.69 pp
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 29 0 Popular vote 5,668,731 5,297,045 Percentage 51.22% 47.86%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No data
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

Elections in Florida
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Government
v t e

The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate, United States senator Kamala Harris, of California. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Florida was one of six states as well as Washington, D.C., where Trump received a greater percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016.

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention. The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston; Milwaukee was chosen. Florida was Trump's state of residency for this election; New York was his home state in 2016. Trump was the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020.

Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by 1 to 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from 2016 by 2.2 points. This was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004. The main reason was increased support for Trump among Latino voters in the state, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which Biden carried by 7.4 points, significantly less than Clinton's 29.4-point margin in 2016 and Obama's 23.7-point margin in 2012. Trump carried the Cuban vote with 56%, while Biden carried the Puerto Rican vote with 66%, and Trump and Biden split the South American vote with 50% each. Overall, Biden won 54% of Latinos.

In this election, Florida voted 7.8 points right of the nation as a whole, the furthest it has voted from the nation since 1988, when the state voted 14.6 points right of the national result. This was the first election in which Florida backed the losing candidate since 1992. Despite the overall rightward shift, Biden became the first Democrat since 1976 to win the heavily urbanized Duval County, historically a Republican stronghold and home to Jacksonville. Similarly, he became the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.

Primary election

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida Secretary of State declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in the race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard.

The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.

General election

Final predictions

Polling

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

Aggregate polls

State polls

Results

By county

•   Democratic — +10–12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5–10%
•   Democratic — +5–7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5–5%
•   Democratic — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%
•   Republican — +10–12.5%
•   Republican — +>15%

•   Democratic — +10–12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5–10%
•   Democratic — +5–7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5–5%
•   Democratic — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%
•   Republican — +10–12.5%
•   Republican — +>15%

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville)
• Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)
• Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)

By congressional district

Trump won 15 of 27 congressional districts, while Biden won 12, including one that elected a Republican.

Analysis

This election was the first time since 1992, and only the second time since 1960, that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election. It was also the first time since 1960 that both Ohio and Florida have voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election, the first time since 1992 that Florida voted Republican while neighboring Georgia voted Democratic, and the first time since 1992 that Florida voted more Republican than North Carolina. Trump also became the first Republican candidate to win Florida with a majority of the state's popular vote since George W. Bush did so in 2004.

Despite his loss statewide, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County—consolidated with Jacksonville—since Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948. Biden also flipped Pinellas County back to the Democratic Party. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Jefferson County since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Monroe County since Grover Cleveland in 1884.

Also, this is the first time since 1888 that Florida increased its margin to an incumbent that lost re-election nationally. Florida was one of six states where Trump received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in 2016. Florida is one of three states that voted twice for both Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Iowa.

Ex-felons

The United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex crimes. The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. The United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.

Miami-Dade County

In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. People of Mexican, Haitian, and African descent tended to vote for Biden, while people of Cuban, Chilean and Colombian descent did so for Trump, as well as the critical Venezuelan vote swinging Republican. Trump won approximately two thirds of the vote in Hialeah, whereas it was nearly evenly split four years prior. Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics. Trump's coattails played a role in the election of Miami Republicans Carlos A. Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar to the House of Representatives.

Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro. Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies.

Additionally, Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics. Trump significantly increased his share of the vote in majority-Hispanic Osceola County, winning 42.53% of the vote, the highest since 2004.

Edison exit polls

See also

• United States presidential elections in Florida
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. The other five states were Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah.
2. ^ Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday when early voting had begun in a few counties.
3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
4. ^ Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
5. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
6. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
7. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
8. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
9. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
10. ^ Standard VI response
11. West (B) with 1%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
12. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
13. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
14. Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
15. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
16. "Someone else" with 3%
17. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
18. ^ Includes "Refused"
19. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
20. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
21. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
22. "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
23. "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 0%
24. With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
25. With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
26. ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
27. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
28. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
29. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
30. ^ Not yet released
31. "Refused" with 3%
32. "Other third party" with 2%
33. ^ "Third party" with 2%
34. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
35. "Some other candidate" with 3%
36. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
37. "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
38. "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
39. "Third party" with 1%
40. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
41. "One of the other party or independent tickets" with 1%
42. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
43. Under a +2 Democratic turnout model
44. Under a conservative +2 Republican turnout model
45. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
46. No voters
47. "Refused" with 2%; La Riva (PSOL) with 1%; Blankenship (C), Fuente (A) and "other" with no voters
48. With the preferences of La Riva and Jorgensen voters in an election featuring only Biden and Trump
49. "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%
50. "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
51. "Someone else/third party" with 1%
52. "No one" with 1%
53. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
54. ^ "Other" with 1%
55. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
56. "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
57. "Someone else" with 0%
58. Would not vote with 2%
59. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
60. "Other/not sure" with 4%
61. "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
62. "Refused" with 1%
63. "Other" and "Neither" 1%
64. "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
65. "Third-party candidate" with 2%
66. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
67. "Other party candidate" with 5%
68. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
69. "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
70. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
71. "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
72. "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
73. "Third party" with 2.7%
74. "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
75. "Green nominee" with 0.4%
76. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
77. ^ Would not vote with 6%
78. Would not vote with 7%
79. ^ Would not vote with 8%
80. "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
81. "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
82. The other five states were Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah, as well as Washington DC.

Partisan clients

1. ^ The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
2. Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
3. Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
4. Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
5. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
6. The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
7. Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
8. ^ Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
9. Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters

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Further reading

• David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (August 30, 2020), "The six political states of Florida", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on September 7, 2020, retrieved September 7, 2020
• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington, D.C.: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Florida
• Nick Corasaniti; Stephanie Saul; Patricia Mazzei (September 13, 2020), "Big Voting Decisions in Florida, Wisconsin, Texas: What They Mean for November", The New York Times, archived from the original on September 13, 2020, Both parties are waging legal battles around the country over who gets to vote and how
• Jonathan Martin; Patricia Mazzei (September 14, 2020), "A Tight Trump-Biden Race in Florida: Here's the State of Play", The New York Times, archived from the original on September 14, 2020
• David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", The New York Times. (describes bellwether Pinellas County, Florida)

Videos:

• "Conservative Cubans, Venezuelans in Miami on why they voted for Trump". The Washington Post. November 4, 2020. Archived from the original on November 14, 2021.

External links

• Florida Elections Commission government website
• "League of Women Voters of Florida". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Florida at Ballotpedia
• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Florida", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Florida: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA