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2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota

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Turnout	62.65%
Nominee Donald J. Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic–NPL Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Michael R. Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 3 0 Popular vote 235,595 114,902 Percentage 65.11% 31.76%
County results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100%
President before election Donald J. Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic-NPL

Elections in North Dakota
Federal government Presidential 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Presidential primaries Democratic 1996 2000 2004 2008 2016 2020 2024 Republican 2004 2008 2012 2024 U.S. Senate 1889 1891 1893 1897 1899 1903 1905 1909 1911 1911 sp 1914 1916 1920 1922 1926 1926 sp 1928 1932 1934 1938 1940 1944 1946 1946 sp 1950 1952 1956 1958 1960 sp 1962 1964 1968 1970 1974 1976 1980 1982 1986 1988 1992 1992 sp 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2022 2024 U.S. House 1889 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1917 1st sp 1918 1920 1922 1924 2nd sp 1926 1928 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1963 1st sp 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
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v t e

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, incumbent President Donald J. Trump from Florida, and running mate Vice President Michael R. Pence from Indiana against Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Trump easily won North Dakota 65.1% to 31.8%, a margin of 33.35%, about three points down from his 36-point victory in 2016. Joe Biden won the same two counties Walter Mondale, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton won in 1984, 2000 and 2016 respectively: the majority-Native American counties of Rolette and Sioux, both of which have long been Democratic strongholds. However, Biden only came 2.7 points short of winning Cass County, which holds the state's largest city of Fargo, as compared to Clinton's 10.5-point loss in 2016.

Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Sargent County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 and the first without Benson, Ransom, or Steele Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960. Despite Biden's modest improvement over Hillary Clinton four years earlier, this remains the second-worst Democratic performance in the state since 1980. Trump's vote share was also the largest for any candidate in the state since 1952.

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

The North Dakota Democratic–NPL Party held a firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020.

All of the withdrawn candidates had withdrawn from the race while mail-in voting had already begun.

Republican caucuses

The North Dakota Republican Party held a non-binding firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020, with incumbent President Donald Trump running unopposed.

The party then formally selected their 29 Republican National Convention delegates, unpledged to any particular candidate at the state party convention. The state party convention was originally scheduled for March 27–29, but due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic it was ultimately cancelled.

Libertarian nominee

• Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

General election

Final predictions

Polling

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Aggregate polls

Polls

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:

Results

By county

•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is an at-large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

Analysis

North Dakota, a rural state covered in the Midwestern Plains, is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. It last voted for a Democrat in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried it against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory. Since 1964, North Dakota has been competitive in only three elections: 1976, 1996, and 2008.

A few prime reasons why this state votes heavily for Republicans include its older, majority-White populace; agribusiness; and the state's recent oil boom. In recent presidential elections, Bakken shale oil has been a major driver of conservative success in the state, as the oil boom increasingly fuels the economy of North Dakota. The main oil boom has taken place in the western counties—perhaps Trump's main base. Trump signed executive orders on his first month in office, reviving the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines rejected by the Obama administration.

See also

• United States presidential elections in North Dakota
• Presidency of Joe Biden
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Unsigned 87, over 7, blank 39 votes
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. ^ Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
5. "Other candidate" with 4%
6. "Other candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Burgum's campaign

References

1. ^ "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. "2020 Democratic Caucus Results". North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party. Archived from the original on October 30, 2020. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
5. "6 states will vote in Tuesday's GOP presidential primary. Trump will win all 6". Vox. March 10, 2020.
6. "North Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 4, 2020.
7. "North Dakota GOP cancels state convention because of coronavirus threat". KFGO. March 18, 2020.
8. "2020 State Convention – North Dakota Republican Party". Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved March 18, 2020.
9. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
10. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
11. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
12. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
13. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
14. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
15. David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
16. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
17. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
18. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
19. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
20. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
21. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
22. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
23. 270 to Win
24. FiveThirtyEight
25. ^ SurveyMonkey/Axios
26. "DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on October 6, 2020. Retrieved October 5, 2020.
27. DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First
28. ^ DFM Research
29. ^ DFM Research
30. 1892 Polling/Doug Burgum
31. DFM Research
32. Zogby Analytics
33. "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
34. Cohen, Micah (October 14, 2012). "An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
35. Volcovici, Valerie (December 6, 2016). "Trump supports completion of Dakota Access Pipeline". Reuters. Retrieved November 13, 2020.

Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, North Dakota

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "North Dakota", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "North Dakota: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of North Dakota". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• North Dakota at Ballotpedia

v t e State and district results of the 2020 United States presidential election
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• 2020 United States presidential election by state
• United States presidential elections in North Dakota
• 2020 North Dakota elections